The current pandemic focus is the race to vaccinate the world at a time when the virus seems to be ever-more the dramatic player in our lives, ducking and diving and mutating and generally making itself the unpopular visitor.
Like all races, there will be winners and losers and must-try harders and, in keeping with the view of progressive kindergartens, there will be a prize for all those who participate.
The priority in this race is, of course, health and protecting the most vulnerable and there are many debates on how best to achieve this as an increasing number of vaccines come online. This hack is not qualified in any way, not even remotely, to comment on the different approaches and their motivations, having barely grasped the science behind why fireworks always appear perfectly angled towards the viewer wherever they’re standing.
So breathe a sigh of relief, as ‘twere, but realise that the vaccine race will continue to affect the sector and not just in terms of when we can all travel again, because, as ever with Covid-19, it’s not going to be as simple as that.
What we are likely to see instead is a two-track recovery. The planet went into this, largely, together, but that is where it ended. Anyone outside the UK trying to get hold of someone after lockdown kicked in this week will have noted a lag as schools closed and the nightmares of last year kicked back in. But while last year lockdown was a shared pain, the new variant has yet to debilitate Europe - thus far - putting the UK on the back foot.
Now look at the vaccine rollout. Israel has been singled out this week as a doyen of vaccinations, reaching nearly 15% of the country’s 9.3 million population in about two weeks and expected to hit 70% in April. Israel has made the most of being a small country (Iceland is also up there in the global vaccination rankings) with a universal healthcare system, patient data stored centrally and a great chunk of technological nouse. The limited shelf life of the Pfizer vaccine means that, if there is any left over at the end of the day, a first-come-first-served message goes out to anyone, regardless of health and age, to come and scoop up what’s left.
And of that, more later. But it seems certain that, barring any more plot twists, Israel and Iceland will be amongst the first countries to have effectively dealt with the pandemic and be able to declare the virus under control. Both have rigorous testing regimes which will enable them to stay that way and so we can expect both countries to be able to market themselves as such and for those who have been able to access the vaccine - let’s call them luxury travellers - the chance to release that pent-up leisure demand in an unfettered way is going to mean a much-needed boost to visitor numbers.
Now looking at France, which managed to vaccinate 516 people in one week, due to an elaborate consent mechanism and it seems unlikely that the world’s favourite tourist destination will be quite as quick to embrace a return to normal travel. It is now looking to accelerate the rollout and will no doubt do so before the protests begin on the streets, but it is clear that some countries will still be closed come Autumn, whereas others will be streaking ahead.
Will those who have vaccine leftover be offering it as part of a holiday package? There is plenty of incentive. The gap between the haves and have nots looks set to accelerate in 2021.