Donald Trump’s second US presidency represents “the most fundamental shift since the end of the Cold War” according to a British journalist, presenter, author and podcaster.
Speaking at the IHIF EMEA 2025 conference in Berlin, Germany, Jon Sopel, who was the BBC News’ North America editor during the first Trump presidency, said the US president has already sent shockwaves around the world less than 100 days after starting his second term.
And he told delegates this was just the beginning of an utterly unpredictable period of US politics that will impact every corner of the globe, with the only thing that can be guaranteed being extreme uncertainty as to what Trump will do next.
Sopel said in the UK alone, since 20 January when he returned to the White House, the British government has held an emergency budget with £6 billion set to be raised via welfare cuts to be spent on defence, although the markets say this is not enough.
The UK government has also hinted at getting rid of a proposed digital service tax that would mainly affect US tech companies and which Sopel argued has all been done to please Trump.
Nor has Europe been unaffected by the contagion, Sopel added the German government is changing its debt rules to better fund its own armed forces while France’s President Macron is trying to lead Europe’s response in dealing with the new US president.
He said: “It is as though Donald Trump has scrambled all of our politics and economics going forward.
“I don’t think anyone really thought the change would be as dramatic or as fast, as Donald Trump has not yet been in the White House for 100 days this time round.”
Sopel added that that Trump is “more ideologically focused than last time … with fewer people acting as a brake on him”.
Instead, Sopel said the US president’s two key personal allies are Vice President JD Vance and Tesla owner Elon Musk, both of whom are disruptors themselves and are helping drive his political manoeuvres.
He added while Vance has been famously contemptuous of Europe, one of the biggest impacts of the new presidency has been the effort to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine where President Zelensky has been portrayed as the aggressor, while Russia’s President Putin has been offered numerous concessions as part of the initial talks.
Sopel said these changes have also resulted in a number of unintended changes, and most notably the return of strongman politics, with global leaders increasingly expecting to be allowed to do what they like.
Sopel said: “You’re going to see a lot more of ‘this is my backyard and I can what I want’ in terms of politics.
“The idea of powerful nation states and rules governing this and international sovereignty is going out of the window.”
Sopel added while he thought this new mood music might drive a rise in the global Far Right movement he now believes that it could lead to a resurgence in liberal politics instead.
While Sopel said there has been a huge amount of uncertainty and change following Trump’s new presidency, this is only the start with the next big challenge expected on 2 April when Trump is set to impose tariffs on countries around the world.
He argued the last time the US attempted such a widespread imposition of tariffs was about 100 years ago when the Smoot-Hawley Act was introduced and later blamed for being a key driver of the Great Depression.
Sopel added while the president might seem to be out of control, there is one way to try and intuit what he might do next.
He said: “Donald Trump cares massively about what is happening to the markets and consumer confidence in the US.”
But even this could change in a second Sopel warned, adding: “You can read whatever business newspaper you want.
“Anyone who tells you they know what is going to happen next in the US is making it up and why do I say that, because I don’t think Donald Trump knows and that is why there a whole lot of uncertainty ahead of us.”